Strategic Melbourne Cup Betting

Strategic Melbourne Cup Betting


With over $140 million bet yearly on the Melbourne Cup, it is clear that this race causes an excited betting frenzy amongst Australians. In the recent past, most people betting on the Mulching Mornington Peninsula Cup tended to bet on a Bart Cummings or Lee Freedman trained horse, and most would have walked away with a nice little win. More recently, however, Aussie trained imports are making their mark on the field, with Gai Waterhourse, Robert Hickmott, Peter G. Moody, and other shrewd trainers stocking up on international stayers. This international angle looks to be promising, due to the recent success of imports such as Americain (US) and Dunaden (France). Many favourites this year are international horses.

The closest finish ever in Melbourne Cup history occurred last year, when Dunaden won in a photo finish over British bred Red Cadeaux; both of whom are favourites set to run in Melbourne Cup 2012. With Melbourne Cup betting, picking the favourite may seem like a safe choice, but as the Cup is a handicapped race, this is not always true. Dunaden, for example, has just had a 1kg handicap weight added, due to his spectacular win in the Caulfield Cup, which may affect his performance by about 2 lengths. Other factors to consider are a horses Pedigree, fitness and track performance (for example, don’t bet on any horse known as a ‘duffer in the wet’, if it has been raining). Also check your potential punt’s performance over distance, you want to back a stayer – not a sprinter- for the Cup. Another factor that counts in the  is the barriers. The middle barriers usually make for the best starts, as the inside and far outside barriers usually prove challenging. Finally, if you are superstitious you will have to get out your horseshoe, lucky rabbit’s foot and four-leaf clover here, because – against all logical reason – horses starting from barriers 12 and 15 have never won the Cup!

As for strategies based on Melbourne Cup odds, you could certainly play it safe and back your horse on Cup day. This will allow you to accurately gauge the favourites, based on weather and fitness; however, a more potentially rewarding, yet slightly riskier bet, is the all-in bet (betting now on fixed, better odds). Whether you bet for a win or a place, a trifecta or a quinella, or any other exotic, this writer wishes you luck during the Melbourne Cup.


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